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Thursday, 6 September 2018

Nifty outlook and top trading calls

IDEAL STOCK September 06, 2018

IDEAL STOCK | Nifty outlook | trading ideas

NIFTY VIEW

Nifty index after correcting from 11,750 to 11,394, has taken the support of 11400 levels, from where a bounce can be expected up to 11,550. The support for the day is seen at 37,760/11,400 while resistance is seen at 38,250/11,540. Bank Nifty, too, has corrected by 1,250 points with banks like IndusInd & Yes Bank, for now, have taken the support of 200 DMA. Bank Nifty would have a range of 27,120-27,630. The rupee too has approached its resistance of 72 from where some recovery can be anticipated.

BUY INDUSIND BANK

CMP: Rs 1,854.85

TARGET: Rs 1,970

STOP LOSS: Rs 1,800

The stock has witnessed a decent correction from the peak of 2038 to show signs of bottoming out at around 1825 levels which is also very near to the significant 200 DMA moving average and we anticipate a bounce from here on. The RSI has also hit the oversold zone and is poised for an upward move and with the chart looking attractive and with good volume participation witnessed, we recommend a buy in this stock for an upside target of 1970 keeping a stop loss of 1800.

BUY GLENMARK PHARMA

CMP: Rs 673.75

TARGET: Rs 740

STOP LOSS: Rs 638

The stock has been in the rising trend with strong positive bias and after a consolidation phase for quite some time at around 650 – 665 levels, it has indicated a positive bullish candle pattern in the daily chart to signify strength and can move still further upward in the coming days. With the RSI maintaining a strong pattern and with decent volume activity witnessed, we recommend a buy in this stock for an upside target of 740 keeping a stop loss of 638.

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Wednesday, 1 August 2018

RBI policy meet:

IDEAL STOCK August 01, 2018

Rate-sensitive stocks trade lower after it hikes

repo rate by 25 bps to 6.5%

The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to hike rates by 25 basis points to 6.5 percent.

Shares of rate-sensitive stocks were trading lower after the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to hike rates by 25 basis points to 6.5 percent.

Sectors such as banking, real estate, and auto, among others, are usually impacted by a rate hike as the cost of the products will be directly influenced due to increase in interest rate.
The Bank Nifty was trading lower, with stocks such as Yes Bank, Federal Bank, and HDFC Bank, among others in the red. IndusInd Bank and Kotak Bank were trading in the green.

There was some upmove visible among financial services. The likes of IIFL, Max Financial Services, Shriram Transport, Bajaj Finance, Edelweiss were all up around 2 percent.

Meanwhile, PSU banks were trading lower after the central bank’s announcement. The likes of IDBI, Union Bank of India, PNB, and Bank of India were in the green, but weakness was seen in other major names such as OBC, Syndicate Bank, Andhra Bank, State Bank of India and Allahabad Bank, among others.

Auto names were trading in the red too. A nifty Auto index was up down around a percent. Shares of Ashok Leyland, Bharat Forge, Apollo Tyres, Amara Raja Batteries, and TVS Motor, among others are higher, while Hero Moto, Tata Motors and Maruti are in the red.

Realty stocks, a part of the rate-sensitive pack, reacted positively to the development, with the Nifty Index realty index trading over 0.10 percent higher. Phoenix Mills, Prestige Estates and Brigade Enterprises, and Sobha were up up to 4 percent, while the likes of Oberoi Realty, DLF, Indiabulls Real Estate traded down 1-2 percent.

RBI Policy meet Read more

Wednesday, 16 May 2018

Sensex opens down 166 pts, Nifty breaks 10750 on global weakness

IDEAL STOCK May 16, 2018

Most Asian stocks traded lower following a down day for Wall Street as the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 3.09 percent overnight.

May 16, 9:26 AM (IST)

Buzzing: Indiabulls Real Estate share price gained more than 6 percent ahead of board meeting to consider share buyback proposal.

The real estate company informed exchanges that a meeting of the board of directors will be held on May 18 to consider the proposal of buyback of equity shares.

It further said in terms of SEBI regulations and Code of Conduct for Prevention of Insider Trading of the company, the trading window for dealing in securities of the company has been closed and will remain closed till May 20, 2018.

May 16, 09:20 AM (IST)

Market Opening: Benchmark indices opened sharply lower, following weak trend in global stocks and uncertainty over formation of government in Karnataka.

The 30-share BSE Sensex was down 166.25 points at 35,377.69 and the 50-share NSE Nifty declined 54.20 points to 10,747.70.

Nifty Bank fell 184 points as PNB plunged 10 percent.

Lupin, Power Grid, Tata Steel, Tata Motors, TCS and Tech Mahindra were early gainers.

Titan Company, Bajaj Finserv, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Cipla, HPCL and SBI were under pressure.

Nifty Midcap was down 83 points. Reliance Communications, Jaypee Infratech, MRPL, Shakti Pumps, PI Industries, Syndicate Bank, Allahabad Bank, Karnataka Bank, Bajaj Hindusthan and IDBI Bank were down up to 8 percent.

Endurance, Crompton Consumer, Indiabulls Real Estate, Bhushan Steel, IRB Infrastructure and Ashok Leyland gained up to 7 percent.

May 16, 09:15 AM (IST)

Rupee Update: The Indian rupee recovered sharply after opening 7 paise lower, trading higher by 18 paise at 67.89 against the US dollar.

May 16, 09:14 AM (IST)

Market Outlook: Abhinav Gupta , President, Capital Markets, Share India Securities said index seems to be at the cross roads as Tuesday's intraday reversal could be beginning of further corrective action. Besides, weaker global cues and sluggish rupee added to the subdued sentiments on the bourses. Brace up for more volatility ahead. Below 10,780, Nifty would test sup of 10,720-10,680. Resistance is at 10,880.

May 16, 09:12 AM (IST)

Rupee Update: The Indian rupee slipped further on Wednesday. It has opened lower by 7 paise at 68.14 per dollar.

In the previous session rupee ended at 68.07 (down 56 paise from Monday's close), a lowest level since January 2017 post BJP fell short of clear majority in Karnataka.

Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services said, "With food and fuel prices pushing CPI higher, rupee’s weakness has hastened, sinking to 16-month low. Political uncertainty after the Karnataka elections also did not help."

"RBI’s recent minutes had also revealed a hawkish bias, and the firm inflation now agrees with the same. To this end, oil’s trajectory for the rest of the month and trade balance figures for April would be crucial as market weighs RBI’s take on the rates," he added.

May 16, 09:10 AM (IST)

PNB's NPAs are now more than its net worth: The country’s second-largest state-owned lender Punjab National Bank achieved a dubious distinction. It became the first major bank in the country whose net worth fell below the amount of non-performing loans on its books.

As on March 31, the bank had net non-performing loans totaling over Rs 48,000 crore on its books, against a net worth of around Rs 41,000 crore.

To be sure, PNB is not the first bank in the country to have witnessed this kind of misfortune. Smaller public sector banks like Oriental Bank of Commerce, Dena Bank, Union Bank of India and UCO Bank, among others, have already crossed that bridge.

But the fact that a lender the size of PNB, which has loans of around Rs 4.33 lakh crore on its books, has deteriorated to such an extent that it has more bad loans than it is worth is a point of concern.

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Friday, 11 May 2018

Top 4 short-term trading strategies | IDEAL STOCK

IDEAL STOCK May 11, 2018

Nifty has strong support at 10,689 levels

a break out will take it to 10,630. On the upper side, the index will face a hurdle at 10,785 levels. A crossover will take it to 10,825 levels,"

Nifty future closed Thursday 0.41 percent lower at 10,725. On the option front, maximum Put open interest is seen at 10,500 followed by 10,600 strike, while maximum Call OI is seen at 11,000 followed by 10,900 strike.

Put writing is also seen at 10,700 while Call writing is seen at 11,000 followed by 10,900 strikes. Option data suggests an immediate trading range between 10,650 and 10,850 zones.

India VIX moved up 1.09 percent to 14.43. It has been moving upwards for the last eight consecutive sessions from 12.02 to 14.43 levels. Build-up of long positions were seen in Hexaware Technologies and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) while shorts build up were seen in Federal Bank, Ambuja Cements, Oriental Bank of Commerce, Voltas, Dr Reddy's Laboratories, Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL), Siemens, SRF and Union Bank of India.

Nifty outlook

Nifty has strong support at 10,689 levels, a break out will take it to 10,630. On the upper side, the index will face a hurdle at 10,785 levels. A crossover will take it to 10,825 levels.

Bank Nifty outlook

Bank Nifty has support around 26,055 levels. A break out will take it to 25,954-25,880 levels while 26,267 will act as resistance, a crossover of which will take it to 26,365 levels.

Stock strategies

Monsanto India: The stock is looking good on daily chart. Buy between Rs 2760-2750 with a stop loss of Rs 2715. On the upper side, the stock may go up to Rs 2845-2850 levels in next 5-7 days.

Satin Creditcare Network: The stock has given strong upward break out on daily chart with volume. Buy between Rs 413-410 with a stop loss of Rs 404. On the upper side stock may go up to Rs 432-435 levels in next 5-7 days.

Derivative Strategy (Time period: Till expiry)

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation: Buy May future between Rs 189-187 with a stop loss of Rs 184.5 for an upside target of Rs 198-200.

Bharti Airtel: Buy May future on dips around Rs 411-408 with a stop loss of Rs 403 for an upside target of Rs 427-432.

TRADER INVESTOR Read more

Friday, 4 May 2018

Nifty mildly higher in pre-opening trade; Ideal Stock

IDEAL STOCK May 04, 2018

Benchmark indices were marginally higher in pre-opening trade despite global weakness.

Market Outlook: ICICI Securities said the benchmark indices continued to witness selling and slipped below 10,700 after struggling to move and sustain above 10,700 on Thursday. The Nifty finally ended around 40 points lower whereas the premiums in Nifty as well as Bank Nifty increased significantly. Selling was clearly visible in most heavyweights, which kept the index move in check whereas IVs rose by another 1.2 percent.

The research house feels the Nifty index is likely to remain under pressure with such high premiums. "Nifty futures settled at a premium of 32 points with a rise in IVs by 1.1 percent. The highest Put base is at the 10500 strike with 45 lakh shares while the highest Call base is at the 11000 strike with 59 lakh shares."

Technical Recommendations: We spoke to Way2Wealth Brokers Pvt. Ltd and here’s what they have to recommend:
Jindal Steel: Sell| Target: Rs 218| Stop loss: Rs 264| Timeframe 15 to 21 trading session| Return 9%Voltas: Sell| Target: Rs 570| Stop loss: Rs 665| Timeframe 15 to 21 trading sessions| Return 7%
ITC: Buy| Target: Rs 320| Stop loss: Rs 266| Timeframe 15 to 21 sessions| Return 12%
Stocks in news: PNB Housing Finance: Q4 consolidated net profit up 0.8 percent at Rs 219.2 cr; revenue up 9.1 percent at Rs 1,570 cr YoY
L&T Finance Holdings: Q4 profit up 30 percent at Rs 409 cr; revenue up 27 percent at Rs 2,748.34 crore YoY; gross NPA at 4.80 percent versus 5.49 percent and net NPA at 2.34 percent versus 2.87 percent QoQ
Vedanta: Q4 net profit up 34.3 percent at Rs 5,675 crore; revenue up 22.7 percent at Rs 27,630 crore YoY
Thirumalai Chemicals: Q4 consolidated net profit at Rs 39.7 crore versus Rs 19.1 crore; revenue up 7.9 percent at Rs 330.7 crore versus Rs 306.6 crore YoY; recommends stock split from Rs 10 to Re 1 and dividend of Rs 20 per share
Nucleus Software: Q4 net profit down 15.2 percent at Rs 17.3 crore; revenue up 10.3 percent at Rs 111 crore YoY
Trent: Q4 net profit down 53.8 percent at Rs 11.7 crore; revenue up 17.9 percent at Rs 528.7 crore YoY
Matrimony.com: Q4 net profit up 90.9 percent at Rs 16.8 crore; revenue up 84.4 percent at Rs 84.4 crore YoY
HCC: Q4 consolidated loss at Rs 1,090 crore versus loss of Rs 982.6 crore; revenue up 2.7 percent at Rs 10,132 crore YoY
Emami: Q4 consolidated net profit down at Rs 60.9 crore versus Rs 83.3 crore; revenue up 8.2 percent at Rs 617 crore YoY; board approves bonus issue of 1:1
Moneycontrol News
Benchmark indices were marginally higher in pre-opening trade despite global weakness.
The 30-share BSE Sensex was up 19.05 points at 35,122.19 and the 50-share NSE Nifty gained 20.80 points at 10,700.50.
Ruchi Soya and PC Jeweller were gainers while HCC, Jet Airways, Sun Pharma and JSW Energy were under pressure.
Asian shares were marginally lower today.
The S&P 500 ended lower on Thursday after a choppy session as disappointing earnings reports from several companies offset strong economic data, said a Reuters report.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 5.17 points, or 0.02 percent, to 23,930.15, the S&P 500 lost 5.94 points, or 0.23 percent, to 2,629.73 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 12.75 points, or 0.18 percent, to 7,088.15.

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Monday, 9 April 2018

Short-term outlook for the market remains positive: Ideal Stock

IDEAL STOCK April 09, 2018

NIFTY
CLOSE- 10331.60 (06.04.2018)

The market closed 2nd consecutive week in positive territory. It’s able to hold crucial support near 10100 levels on Nifty. It made a high & low of 10350.50 levels & 10111.30 levels respectively on Nifty during the week. As anticipated, we have seen rally till 10300-10350 range so far on Nifty this week. By looking at broader structure, I am concluding as “end of short-term wave-iv correction/ short-term bottom & beginning of wave-v upward rally towards higher levels targets in the medium term”. One should expect the markets to trend towards higher levels targets as mentioned below in short-term till it reverses. Ideal Stock
It looks like the markets has completed short-term correction near the recent low of 9951.90 levels on Nifty & 32,483.84 levels on Sensex. It has almost retraced almost 38.2% near recent lows in these short-term correction as per chart attached. It looks like the beginning of wave-I of 5 as per chart attached as per preferred wave counts with ruling out the possibility to break recent lows as mentioned above till short-term reverses.
On the other hand, break of short-term reversal levels will only open up the possibility of Alternate-II wave count possibility as per chart attached which is not my preferred one at current levels of the market for short-term.
The short-term outlook for the market remains positive till Nifty trades above 10111 levels and expecting targets in the range of 10500-10650 levels in short term. Medium term outlook for the market remains positive till Nifty trades above 8,968 levels and expecting targets in the range of 12000-12200 levels in the medium term.
Time wise also market has completed wave-IV correction till March End as mentioned earlier. Many stocks particularly of broader market is also showing strength & strong signal of end of short term correction. Other indices such as midcap, small cap & Bank nifty is also showing strength & also giving strong sign of end of short term correction. Global Market particularly, US Market also showing sign of end of short term correction. Therefore, many of the evidences giving sign of short term bottom. Trader should strictly follow trend till it reverses.
BANK NIFTY also closed 2nd consecutive weekly in positive territory. It looks like end of short term correction near recent low of 23631.20 levels. It has almost retraced almost 38.2% near recent lows in these short term correction as per chart attached. It has perfectly able to hold lower end of REVERSE PARALLEL CHANNEL as per chart attached, giving strong indication of short term bottom. It looks like beginning of wave-I of 5 as per chart attached as per preferred wave counts with ruling out possibility to break recent lows as mentioned above till short term reverses. 24,115.80 levels is strong support/Reversal levels for short term & One can expect higher levels targets around 25800 levels in short term and 29600-30000 levels in medium term.
On the other hand, break of short term reversal levels will only open up possibility of Alternate-II wave count possibility as per chart attached which is not my preferred one at current levels of market for short term.
10000 & 10700 levels is strong support & resistance levels range respectively based on option open interest data so far for next month series. Market will remain very volatile ahead of Result season this month. Any kind of such short term correction or consolidation is buying opportunity for medium to long term Investment perspectives till medium term reverses.
Momentum indicators Daily KST & daily MACD both are in BUY supporting short term trend . One should be stock specific & follow the trend with trail stop loss levels till it reverses. Close below short term reversal levels will lead to sharp correction till 9950-9800 levels on Nifty & 32400-31800 levels on Sensex in short term.
Stock Picks:
DHFL BUY
CLOSE: Rs 538.20
TARGET: Rs 565/590
DHFL closed weekly in positive territory. It’s outperforming in short term. Its daily momentum indicators are in BUY. One can BUY with stop loss of 490 for the target of 565/592 levels in short term.
BUY BATA
CLOSE: Rs- 772.15
TARGET: Rs 796/810
BATA closed weekly in positive territory. It’s outperforming in short term. Its daily momentum indicators care BUY. Risk reward is favorable to BUY at current levels. One can BUY with a stop loss of Rs 740 for the target of Rs 796/810 in short-term.
BUY NALCO
CLOSE: Rs-70.85
TARGET: Rs 75/80
NALCO closed the weekly in positive territory. It’s outperforming in short term. Its daily momentum indicators care BUY. Risk reward is favourable to BUY at current levels. One can BUY with a stop loss of Rs 66.50 for the target of Rs 75/80 in short-term.
BUY L&T
CLOSE: Rs 1318
TARGET: Rs 1370
L&T closed the weekly in positive territory. It looks like end of medium term correction. Its daily momentum indicators care BUY. Risk reward is favorable to BUY at current levels. One can BUY with a stop loss of Rs 1290 for the target of Rs 1370 in short-term.
BUY ESCORTS
CLOSE: Rs- 905.90
TARGET: Rs 945/960
ESCORTS closed the weekly in positive territory. It’s outperforming in short term. Its daily momentum indicators care BUY. Risk reward is favourable to BUY at current levels. One can BUY with a stop loss of Rs 869 for the target of Rs 945/960 in short-term.

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